Goldman Sees ‘Mild’ Recession Risks Next Year

• 3 min read
Goldman Sees ‘Mild’ Recession Risks Next Year

MARKET MOVERS

  • Intel to buy software business Granulate. The chipmaker said the acquisition will help its cloud and data center customers maximize compute workload performance and reduce infrastructure and cloud costs. Granulate’s cutting-edge autonomous optimization software can be applied to production workloads without requiring the customer to make changes to its code. The deal is expected to close in the second quarter of 2022.

  • The March jobs report keeps the Fed on track for a larger rate rise in May. Employers added 431,000 jobs in March. The report is likely to do little to assuage concerns expressed recently by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the labor market is overheating, with job and wage growth rising at levels that may keep inflation too far above the central bank’s 2% target. Read more here.

  • Tesla is poised for another record quarter. The EV maker benefits from high gas prices pushing more buyers toward plug-in models. A strong delivery number could provide a boost to Tesla’s stock, extending a rally that has pushed its market value back above the trillion-dollar mark. The EV maker’s deft navigation of the supply-chain crisis, plans for a stock split and plant openings have helped shore up investor sentiment.

  • US orders biggest ever release from Strategic Petroleum Reserve. President Joe Biden yesterday announced a massive release of oil from the country’s strategic petroleum reserves. It was an effort to try to lower oil prices. 180mn barrels of oil will be injected into the market over the next six months, which works out to a million barrels a day. It’s the biggest ever release of oil from the reserves. Source(0:47)

  • Crude oil constraints continue. We are seeing a bunch of self sanctioning where banks don't want to give guarantees, ships can't get insurance, and so we're seeing about 1.5 million barrels taken off the market so fast in crude oil and about a million barrels in the product right now. Meanwhile, there have been drone attacks from the Houthis in Saudi Arabia, and Libya can't get financing right now. Source(24:42)

  • Shiba Inu announces the launch of its Metaverse. SHIB: The Metaverse will offer up more than 100 thousand plots of virtual land for sale using Ethereum coins to purchase. The project's current three native tokens, SHIB, LEASH, and BONE will have future uses in the virtual world. Holders of LEASH or a Shiba Inu NFT get first dibs on land purchases. SHIB landowners could earn passive income and other rewards.

  • Listing prices hit the highest median ever. Listing prices rose to a median of $405,000 in March. However, economists say that buyers may soon see relief with expectations of more inventory coming that could help relieve some of the pricing pressures. Housing inventory is expected to hit positive territory year over year this summer, according to realtor.com®’s report. Read more here.

WHAT TO WATCH

  • Car sales are seen sputtering as supply-chain woes hurt production. Automakers are expected to report weak vehicle sales for the quarter as chip shortages and supply-chain issues continue to limit vehicle production. Sales of new vehicles are projected to fall 16% in the first quarter from the year-ago period and represent the second-worst quarterly total in a decade, behind the pandemic-affected second quarter of 2020.

  • Goldman sees risks rising for a ‘mild’ recession after a year. Goldman considered a variety of signals both in the fixed income space as well as stocks and options and came to a conclusion: Risks are not imminent but are rising. The probabilities implied by most of the single asset indicators imply a very low chance of a recession in the next six months, and somewhat higher probabilities over the next 12 months and the 12 months following that.
    Read more here.

  • The EU seeks to speed up crypto rules in the push to tighten sanctions. The European Parliament and member states discussed on Thursday the possibility of shortening the two-year implementation period for proposed EU rules known as the markets in crypto assets (MiCA) during the first round of talks to finalize it. Countries including Ireland, Spain, Poland, and Luxembourg were open to the idea. Read more here.

  • The US will not have a recession in 2022, predicts JPMorgan. There's 6 trillion in stimulus and more than half of that is yet to be spent. Instead, it sits in households and government balance sheets. The US is uniquely positioned to weather the inflation storm. Michael Batnick says the consumers and corporations are prepared for a potential downturn. The consumer is in good shape. Source(25:16)

  • Home prices are poised to come down. Buyer demand may have held steady early on in the year, but if mortgage rates continue to climb, which is likely to happen, there's apt to be some level of pullback. Once that happens, home prices should start to come down due to diminished demand. If housing inventory picks up, supply could catch up to demand in a manner that sends home prices on a downward trend. Source.
← EU to Ban Anonymous Crypto Transactions
U.K. Faces Crypto Exodus →

Comments

Comments are for paying members only.
Please subscribe or sign in to join the conversation!

Subscribe to Market Movers Digest

Subscribe to emails so you never miss a digest.

You've successfully subscribed to Market Movers Digest
Welcome! You are now a Market Movers Digest subscriber.
Welcome back! You've successfully signed in.
Success! You are now a paying member and have access to all content.
Success! Your billing info is updated.
Billing info update failed.