More Jobs Than People

• 3 min read
More Jobs Than People

SOMETHING INTERESTING:

One day soon we could forget about password resets and login troubles for the entire internet. How? Etherium...

If you just rolled your eyes, you should join the Washington Post…

“There will never be such a thing as commercial aerial freighters. Freight will continue to drag its slow weight across the patient earth.” - The Washington Post, 1909

Read here to learn more:

MARKET MOVERS:

  • Delta variant are not contributing to better performance for stay-at-home stocks like strategists predicted… in August thus far, the cohort Goldman Sachs was reportedly watching is underperforming. That means now might actually be a decent time to buy. Read more here.

  • Steve Burns says it is simply too difficult to beat a buy & hold strategy on the S&P 500 index. We kind of agree… the only asset class that meets the same risk tolerance & relative certainty of increase would be real estate. Is now a good time to buy? Will houses keep going up? Nobody knows for sure, but our real estate firm is buying and it’s working out very well. Read more here.

  • Rents rose 7.5% in June compared to last June. That’s the highest rent hike since 2005, according to CoreLogic. Here’s why: people want more space, and they’re willing to pay for it. Single family is not going anywhere and, in fact, it is inversely correlated to Delta — people want out of apartments and into houses. When freak variants take over, rural areas are safer. Read more here.


WHAT WE’RE WATCHING:

  • On two separate accounts, we’ve seen coverage pointing to a correction in the markets. First from Market Foolery, and now from CNBC. We are bullish on real estate, but not so much anything else… time will tell how the Delta variant, inflation, a consumer slowdown, Taliban’s Afghanistan takeover, and (now) Fed’s plan to taper bond purchases will ultimately effect the market. September is also the worst month of the year for the stock market…  

  • Jobless claims are DOWN.. way down. In fact, they’re so far down that it begs the question: do people want jobs? There are more jobs than there are people needing jobs. Dow Jones estimated 365,000 jobless claims and we ended at 348,000 — indicating (a) a labor market that is bouncing back but also (b) a new normal in which employees need to be recruited better & treated better while working. We think the job market is correcting, but we also see us exiting the last 20 years of labor dynamics and entering a new age where employees are treated as partners… get on board or you could be hurting for talent for a long time.

  • The more the news fixates on Covid-19 and the misc variants, the more certain we are that single family, residential real estate will do well. It’s not a guarantee — but let me ask you: if you’re worried about being stacked on top of 200 people who could or could not have Covid, would you rather stick to 800 sf for $1500/mo or move 15 minutes outside the city, get 2,000 sf for $2k/mo, and not have to share an elevator with strangers to get to your front door?

FINAL THOUGHTS:

"The historical odds of making money in U.S. markets are 50/50 over one-day periods, 68% in one-year periods, 88% in 10-year periods, and (so far) 100% in 20-year periods. Anything that keeps you in the game has a quantifiable advantage." (Morgan Housel, The Psychology of Money)

The only secret is staying in the game. There are opporutnities to get in and out of investments, but the key is knowing when to ENTER, not when to EXIT.

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