SOMETHING INTERESTING

Why do you want what you want? People oftentimes waste time, energy, even years and decades of their life chasing down things that on an intrinsic level, don’t actually matter to them. Check out this insightful thread to help you uncover any mimetic desire that could be distracting you from what matters most:

MARKET MOVERS

  • Net liquidity has been very favorable for asset markets this year, up 2.7 trillion dollars. This is partially why you're seeing all-time highs in Bitcoin and all-time highs in stocks, also why those highs are likely to continue. Listen to more here (15:35).

  • The number of built-to-rent single-family homes increased 30% from 2019 to 2020. Today, they make up about 6% of all new homes being built in the U.S., and that number is poised to double over the next 10 years. Read more here.

  • Despite the build-to-rent revolution and growing rental market, U.S. Home Sales still jumped 7% in September. The reason for the uptick in demand: the late-summer dip in mortgage rates and the continued hunt for more work-from-home space. Sales were especially robust at the high end, aided by the booming stock market. Read more here.

  • One culprit of the labor supply problems: COVID vaccine mandates, according to businesses reporting to the Federal Reserve. Even though employment has been increasing at a modest rate in recent weeks, the U.S. economy is still being dampened by a low supply of workers, now exacerbated the mandates. Transportation and technology firms have taken the biggest hit, while many retail, hospitality, and manufacturing firms cut hours or production because they didn’t have enough workers. Read more here.

  • Just days after launch, BITO, the first U.S. Bitcoin futures ETF is already on track to breach a limit on the number of contracts it is permitted to hold. After two days of trading, BITO owns nearly 1,900 contracts and the cap is at 2,000 for first-month contracts. An immediate solution is for BITO to spread out its holdings into longer-dated contracts. However, that risks further distancing the fund from the performance of Bitcoin. Read more here.

WHAT TO WATCH

  • There have been so many big mergers and acquisitions this year - here’s another big one on the horizon: according to multiple reports, PayPal may be in early-stage talks to acquire Pinterest. The deal would likely value Pinterest at $45 billion. PayPal is pushing to become an all-in-one “super app” so it’s trying to stack on more services, like product discovery, to its current menu. If the deal goes through, it would be one of the biggest consumer internet takeovers in years, topping Salesforce’s $27.7 billion purchase of Slack last winter. Read more here.

  • One way to gauge a good NFT is to look at who’s backing the project. BowTiedBull says a good NFT project is backed by rich people. If the goal is to earn money from an NFT project you need successful, rich, and influential people to back it and carry it. This drives the price up as wealthy individuals are purchasing a lot of them. Beyond wealthy influencers, there needs to be a real message around the project. For example, CryptoPunks have the easiest message: “Original NFT with 10,000 units”.  Read more here.

  • We know inflation is an ongoing discussion, and the transitory narrative is dying, but 0% rates? The market is now expecting the first Fed hike by June 2022, only a month ago it was December 2022. The Fed is far behind the curve and should have started normalizing long ago. The Fed Funds rate back in 2006 was over 5%. 0% rates make zero sense. Read more here and here.

  • Here’s a bit of interesting and slightly dystopian news: Worldcoin is offering a crypto token (it’s own) in exchange for...an eye scan. The project has already raised $25 million, bringing its value to $1 billion. The concept is kind of a crypto-attempt at universal basic income, and the eye-scanning orbs are—according to Worldcoin—a way to ensure that nobody gets multiple payouts. We’re seeing mixed reviews, some believing that the messaging is not actually philanthropic but predatory because “You are the product.” Regardless, decentralization and open networks are a must. Read more here.

FINAL THOUGHTS

“I have come to believe that while the lessons and warnings of history are clear if one looks for them, most people don’t look for them because most people learn from their experiences and a single lifetime is too short to give them those lessons and warnings that they need.” - The Archetypical Cycle of Internal Order and Disorder by Ray Dalio

Some say it’s smart to learn from your mistakes. Others say it’s wise to learn from your peers’ mistakes. But it’s another level of wizardry when you can learn and apply strategy from the mistakes of the infamous rulers, investors, and leaders in history that have gone before you. Read up on your history - it’s the wisest sage that few access and the greats leverage.

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